What is probability weight
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Probability weight is a concept that I "invented", derived from 8 answers to an interesting question I once had.
This question is more interesting than expected. Let me answer it:
1. According to the expected value theory, the green button is worth 50 million yuan;
2. Many people are still willing to choose the confirmed 1 million because they cannot tolerate a 50% probability of not getting anything, because after all, this is not a multiple game, how many battles can life have?
3. In other words, if a person cannot bear 'nothing', then the choice on the right is equivalent to 'you have a 50% chance of getting a billion and a 50% chance of dying'. Of course, you cannot bear death, let alone a 50% probability;
4. Open mindedly, if you have the right to make this choice, which is the "probability weight", you can sell the right probability weight worth 50 million to someone who can bear it, such as 20 million (or even higher) to him;
5. Continuing to optimize the previous item, considering the possibility of adding "finding someone willing to purchase the right you should choose", you can sell this right for only 1 million yuan (low down payment), but require the buyer to receive one billion yuan and share it with you;
6. Furthermore, you can turn this option into a lottery for public issuance, shredding the options for retail, printing 200 million copies for two yuan each. The first prize is one billion yuan. Compared to 5, the risk is lower and the return is greater;
7. Considering the successful business model of 6, we have started to raise the next one billion yuan as the top prize, making it a business;
8. According to the P/E valuation, the company raised 2 billion yuan and went public with a market value of 10 billion yuan.
So, did the person who bought your "probability weight" suffer a loss?【make money,Google,guessing competition,】